Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Forecast Discussion


716 
WTNT45 KNHC 252038
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Multiple scatterometer passes over Jerry indicate that the cyclone
no longer has sustained tropical-storm-force winds.  Therefore
Jerry is now a remnant low, and the Bermuda Weather Service has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda.  However, wind
gusts to tropical storm force are still possible on the island
during the next few hours, especially at elevated observing sites.
Based on the scatterometer data, the current intensity is estimated
to be 30 kt. The low-cloud swirl is becoming less well-defined, and
since the system will continue moving through a hostile environment
of strong shear and dry mid-level air, steady weakening is likely.
The cyclone should dissipate in 2-3 days.  The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the latest intensity model consensus.

The system is moving east-northeastward at a slightly faster clip,
or 070/10 kt.  A gradual turn to the east and east-southeast is
forecast as the cyclone moves along the southern edge of the band of
mid-latitude westerlies, and then turns to the right along the
northeastern periphery of a subtropical anticyclone before
dissipating.

This is the last advisory on Jerry.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 32.2N  65.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  26/0600Z 32.8N  63.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1800Z 33.7N  61.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0600Z 34.7N  59.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1800Z 35.0N  56.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 241445
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Jerry's interaction with an upper-level trough has resulted in a
system that is less tropical in appearance, with a lack of
central convection and most of the heavier showers displaced
to the west and well southeast of the center.  In fact, the cyclone
looks somewhat subtropical at this time.  For simplicity, however,
we will continue to carry Jerry as a tropical storm.  Flight-level
winds from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter plane still
support an intensity of 50 kt.  Jerry will be encountering an
increasingly unfavorable environment during the next few days, with
the ambient air mass becoming drier and vertical shear becoming
stronger.  The official intensity forecast calls for continued
weakening and degeneration to a remnant low later in the forecast
period.  This is similar to the consensus of the model guidance.

Based on fixes from the Hurricane Hunters, the center has moved a
little to the left of previous estimates, and the initial motion
estimate is 350/6 kt.  There are no significant changes to the
track forecast philosophy, however.  Over the next couple of days
Jerry should turn northeastward and then east-northeastward in the
flow to the south of a broad mid-latitude trough.  Later in the
period, the weakening cyclone should move eastward to
east-southeastward on the northeast side of a subtropical
anticyclone.  The official track forecast is close to the previous
one and in general agreement with the corrected multi-model
consensus guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by tonight or
early Wednesday.  Large swells are also expected to affect the coast
of Bermuda during the next few days.  These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 30.8N  69.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 31.7N  68.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 32.6N  66.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 33.5N  64.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 34.2N  61.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 35.0N  57.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1200Z 34.5N  54.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 230854
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Overnight the center of Jerry became partially exposed, a result of
strong westerly shear.  However, a new burst of very deep
convection has recently formed and obscured the low-level center
again.  The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, which is well
supported by earlier ASCAT data, and another reconaissance mission
is scheduled for this morning to take a closer look.

The current shear is forecast to slightly weaken during the next
few days as the storm moves over progressively cooler waters with
drier air in the mid-levels.  There will also be a mid-latitude
trough that will be near Jerry in a day or so, but the
evidence is piling up that the trough interaction will be a neutral
or negative factor for the storm.  The intensity forecast is held
almost the same as the previous one, following the corrected-
consensus guidance.  The cyclone could be close to dissipating
around day 5 due to continuation of the shear and cold water if the
latest global models are correct, so the forecast is lowered at
that time.

Jerry is moving north-northwestward at 8 kt, and that general
motion should continue for about another day as it remains steered
by a mid-level ridge to its northeast.  A sharp turn toward the
northeast and then the east is forecast after that when the trough
reaches the system causing it to become embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies.  There are some substantial speed
differences in the models, partially due to the aforementioned
trough interaction, but most of the models are still in agreement
with the above scenario.  The new forecast is close to the previous
one, adjusted somewhat to the south at longer range.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible on Bermuda by late
Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days.  These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 27.8N  67.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 28.6N  68.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 30.1N  68.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 31.3N  68.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 32.6N  66.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 35.5N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 37.0N  54.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 37.0N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

Jerry's center is still exposed to the northwest of the bulk of the
deep convection, although a new burst of thunderstorms is just now
developing just to the southeast of the center.  With no
significant change to the storm's structure, the initial intensity
is held at 55 kt, which matches a blend of final-T and CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB.  UW-CIMSS is depicting 15-20 kt of westerly
shear over Jerry at the moment, although the analysis suggests that
the cyclone could sneak into a slightly lower-shear environment
during the next 12-24 hours.  After that time, however, Jerry is
expected to interact with a mid- to upper-level trough, putting the
system under counterbalancing influences of strong shear but
stronger divergence aloft.  Because of these conditions, only small
fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 4 days or
so.  Jerry will be bumping up against a baroclinic zone while
interacting with the trough, and it's likely that extratropical
transition will at least commence while this system is over the
western Atlantic.  At this point, however, that transition is not
expected to be complete before the end of the 5-day forecast period.

The initial motion is northwestward, or 325/13 kt.  Jerry is still
expected to continue recurving around the subtropical ridge,
interact with the western Atlantic trough in about 48 hours, and
then become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies from day 3
onward.  Except for a slight westward kink in the track between
48-72, resulting from Jerry's expected interaction with the trough,
little change in the NHC track forecast was required from the
previous one.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday.
It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on
Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 24.1N  66.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 25.4N  67.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 26.7N  67.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 28.0N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 29.4N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 32.6N  66.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 36.8N  60.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 40.8N  54.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 202053
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

Satellite images indicate that deep convection has re-developed
near and northeast of the center, with a new rainband also present
in the southwest quadrant.  Overall the degradation in satellite
seen this morning has stopped, and that trend basically matches the
last aircraft data from several hours ago.  The initial wind speed
is set to 70 kt on this advisory, and another Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane
tonight.

Jerry has been moving a little faster today, west-northwestward at
16 kt, perhaps due to the system becoming a little shallower and
feeling the faster low-level flow. There are no significant track
changes to the NHC forecast this afternoon. The hurricane's motion
should gradually bend to the right and slow down during the next few
days while the cyclone is steered around the western flank of a
weakening subtropical ridge. At longer range, a mid-latitude trough
will likely turn the hurricane northward and northeastward, but how
quickly that occurs is an open question. The guidance spread has
only increased this afternoon, although the model consensus hasn't
changed much, so the NHC forecast will hold the course on this
advisory.

Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next
day or so, and further weakening is expected.  While the shear might
not change much by late this weekend, a combination of very warm
water and a more moist mid-level environment could sustain the
cyclone and even allow some strengthening afterward. The long-range
intensity forecast depends on the mid-latitude trough and whether it
is a trough that tends to shear the cyclone, or whether it gives
Jerry a baroclinic kick to increase the winds. I'm hesitant to
change anything at this point given the huge track spread, so the
latest intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous
one, near or slightly above the model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are
possible there tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 19.6N  62.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 20.5N  63.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 21.8N  65.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 23.2N  67.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 24.5N  68.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 27.0N  68.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 30.0N  67.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 33.5N  63.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 191456
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Satellite images indicate that the center of Jerry is on the
northwestern side of the central dense overcast near a very deep
convective burst.  An Air Force recon plane just flew through the
center and found a central pressure of 988 mb and SFMR values near
65 kt.  These data support making Jerry the 4th hurricane of the
2019 Atlantic hurricane season with initial wind speed of 65 kt.

Jerry has the potential to further strengthen today, but an
increase in northwesterly shear related to an upper-level ridge is
anticipated overnight. This change in shear will likely arrest the
development of Jerry and start a slow weakening trend sometime
tomorrow. In 3 or 4 days, Jerry could enter a more conducive
environment for strengthening, but there is a pretty large spread in
the shear forecast near the cyclone at this time, related to the
positioning of Jerry relative to the ridge. Since the environmental
uncertainty at long range is so high, little change has been made to
the previous forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/14
kt.  The track forecast has remained rather consistent during the
past several cycles, taking Jerry just north of the Leeward
Islands during the first couple of days due to seemingly reliable
steering flow from the subtropical ridge to the north. The track
is a little trickier beyond that time due to some dependence on the
strength of Jerry, with a stronger system likely moving a
bit longer toward the west-northwest, similar to the latest
ECMWF/HWRF forecast. Regardless, the cyclone should eventually turn
northward and northeastward by day 5 due to a substantial break in
the subtropical ridge.  The track forecast puts slightly greater
weight on those stronger solutions, and the official track forecast
is a little left of the various consensus aids and not too far from
the last NHC prediction.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to pass north of
northern Leeward Islands, tropical-storm-force winds and locally
heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches are in
effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 16.8N  54.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 17.5N  56.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 18.5N  59.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 19.5N  62.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 20.7N  64.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 23.5N  68.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 26.5N  70.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 30.5N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 180901
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a 0431 UTC AMSR2 microwave
pass indicate that the cyclone has become better organized during
the pass several hours.  Although the surface center is still
situated near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, the
deep convection has expanded in the form of curve bands in the south
portion of the cyclone.  Based on the increased subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates, and the improved microwave
presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt making the
system the tenth named storm of the season.

Even though the shear is low and the sea surface temperatures are
warm, GOES-16 sounder data and the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity models
indicate that the environment surrounding the cyclone is still a
little dry and stable.  Therefore, only gradual intensification is
forecast.  The shear is forecast to increase after 24 hours or so,
to the point where it should slow, or halt development, and this is
reflected in the official forecast.  It should be noted that the
forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it
approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/11
kt, within the low to mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a
subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical storm.  This general
motion is expected to continue during the next 3 to 4 days.
Afterward, a northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a
growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge, is expected.  The NHC
track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory and
lies in the middle of the guidance suite, and hedged toward the HCCA
multi-model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is
too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the
islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane
plan in place and monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 14.1N  47.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 14.8N  49.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 15.7N  52.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 16.8N  54.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 17.9N  57.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 20.2N  64.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  22/0600Z 22.8N  68.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  23/0600Z 25.6N  70.2W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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