Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion – 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

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WTNT45 KNHC 021451
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Satellite and radar imagery show that Dorian is moving very slowly
over Grand Bahama Island this morning.  The hurricane remains quite
symmetric and still exhibits a very well-defined eye, but there is
somewhat less evidence of concentric eyewalls in Bahamas radar
imagery.  Satellite intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS, SAB, and
TAFB are slightly lower this morning, and the initial intensity has
been reduced to 135 kt.  As Dorian moves very slowly during the
next 24 hours, some upwelling in the deeper waters around the
Bahamas could cause some gradual weakening. After that time, the
hurricane is expected to experience a gradual increase in
southwesterly shear, which should lead to a slow decrease in wind
speed.  However, Dorian is forecast to remain a very powerful
hurricane while it moves near the southeastern United States coast.
The NHC intensity forecast is close to the statistical guidance
during the first day or so, then near the HFIP corrected consensus
model later in the period.

As anticipated, the ridge to the north of the storm has weakened
and the eye of Dorian has only been inching westward this morning.
The hurricane is expected to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next 24 hours, which will cause a prolonged period of
devastating winds and storm surge over Grand Bahama Island. By late
Tuesday, the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced and
Dorian should turn northwestward near the east coast of the Florida.
By day 3, the hurricane is expected to make a northeastward turn
ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough.  The overall track envelope
has not changed much, and little adjustment to the previous NHC
forecast was required.

It cannot be stressed enough that only a small deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of the extremely
dangerous hurricane onshore of the Florida east coast within the
hurricane warning area.  In addition, Dorian's wind field is
predicted to expand, which would bring hurricane-force winds closer
to the east coast of Florida even if the track does change.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will
continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight.
Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the
eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and Georgia
coast, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water
levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong
winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coasts of South Carolina and
North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given
by local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States into Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 26.8N  78.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 26.9N  78.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 27.2N  79.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 28.1N  79.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 29.3N  80.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 32.0N  79.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 35.4N  75.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 40.7N  66.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$
Forecaster Brown

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