Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion – 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

426 
WTNT45 KNHC 022046
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Dorian remains an impressive hurricane in satellite imagery.
Recent radar and aircraft observations are again showing signs of
a concentric eyewall structure which might be one of the factors
that has led to a decrease in the peak winds and a small expansion
of the wind field.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported peak flight-level winds of 129 kt, SFMR winds of 121
kt, and a central pressure that has risen to 940 mb. Based on these
observations, the initial wind speed has been set at 125 kt.  Some
additional decrease in wind speed is likely in the short term due
due to a possible eyewall replacement and upwelling of cooler
waters caused by the very slow motion of the hurricane. Although
some additional slow weakening is forecast while the hurricane moves
northward along the southeastern United States coastline due to
increasing southwesterly shear, Dorian is forecast to remain a
powerful hurricane during that time.  The NHC intensity forecast
forecast is a blend of the latest statistical and and consensus
model guidance.

Dorian has become nearly stationary this afternoon with the two most
recent aircraft fixes showing essentially no motion.  A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion should resume overnight and
continue into early Tuesday, with the eye and devastating winds only
slowly pulling away from Grand Bahama Island.  By Tuesday afternoon,
Dorian should begin its much anticipated northwestward turn as a
weakness becomes more pronounced in the subtropical ridge.  Although
the center of Dorian is forecast to move near, but parallel to, the
Florida east coast, only a small deviation of the track toward the
west would bring the core of the hurricane onshore.  A broad mid-
latitude trough should help turn Dorian northeastward by Wednesday
night, and the track models show the center coming precariously
close to the southeastern United States coast.  The tracks from the
1200 UTC runs of the global models have remained fairly stable,
which has resulted in little overall change to the latest NHC track
forecast.

Users are reminded that the hurricane is not a point, and that
life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds extend far
from the center. Regardless of the exact forecast track, strong
winds and a life-threatening storm surge are likely along a portion
of the U.S east coast from Florida through the Carolinas.

Key Messages:

1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand
Bahama Island through tonight. Everyone there should remain in
shelter and not venture into the eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts
of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of
the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coast North Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States through Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 26.8N  78.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 27.0N  78.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 27.6N  79.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 28.7N  79.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 30.0N  80.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 32.8N  78.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 36.6N  73.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 43.5N  64.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$
Forecaster Brown


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