Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 080840
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number  61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian passed very near the
Magdalen Islands around 0600 UTC, and is now between the west coast
of Newfoundland and Anticosti Island.  Earlier ASCAT data indicated
that the wind field remains quite large, but the peak winds have
decreased since yesterday.  Therefore, the initial intensity has
been set at 70 kt.  Dorian is expected to remain a powerful storm
through this afternoon, but the global models show steady weakening
after the center moves northeast of Newfoundland tonight.

The cyclone is moving north-northeastward or 025/23 kt. Dorian
should continue north-northeastward today, then turn east-
northeastward over the North Atlantic as it remains embedded
within the mid-latitude westerlies.  The dynamical model guidance
continues to be in good agreement, and the new official track is
essentially an update of the previous advisory.  The post-tropical
cyclone should should be absorbed by another extratropical low over
the North Atlantic in 2 to 3 days.  The Ocean Prediction Center
(OPC) once again provided guidance on the forecast intensity and
wind radii.

The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on
Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern
Canada has ended.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions
of eastern Canada today. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in
portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and
eastern Nova Scotia.  Hurricane-force winds are still occurring in
portions of eastern Nova Scotia and are spreading into western
Newfoundland.  Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane
Centre for more information on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 48.5N  61.1W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  08/1800Z 50.9N  58.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  09/0600Z 53.6N  52.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/1800Z 55.7N  45.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/0600Z 57.0N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion - 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 040256
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Dorian's structure has changed significantly during the past day or
so.  Satellite and Doppler radar images show that the inner core has
become rather broad with a large ragged eye of at least 30 n mi
diameter.  Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the maximum winds and minimum pressure have held steady since
this afternoon, and based on that information, the initial
intensity is held at 95 kt, but this could be a little generous.
The aircraft data and surface observations indicate that the wind
field is expanding in size with tropical-storm-force and
hurricane-force winds extending up to 150 n mi and 50 n mi from the
center, respectively.  NOAA data buoy 41010 just northeast of the
center has been reporting sustained winds as high as 60 kt with
gusts to 78 kt, and seas over 30 ft.

Dorian is finally on the move again, and the latest initial motion
estimate is 340 degrees at 5 kt.  Dorian is being steered by the
flow between a mid-level ridge to the east and broad troughing to
its north.  A northwest to north motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected through Wednesday, taking the core of
Dorian just offshore and parallel to the east coast of Florida
during that time.  Thereafter, a faster motion toward the northeast
is predicted as a series of shortwave troughs move across the
northeastern U.S.  This should take the core of the hurricane
very near, or possibly over, the coasts of South and North Carolina
on Thursday and Friday.  After it passes the Outer Banks, the
hurricane is forecast to accelerate northeastward in the stronger
mid-latitude flow toward the Canadian Maritimes this weekend.
The NHC track forecast is largely unchanged and near the middle of
the tightly packed guidance envelope.

The hurricane is in a favorable environment of low wind shear, high
moisture, and warm SSTs, and it is expected to stay in these
conditions until it nears the Carolina coast.  Therefore, Dorian is
expected to remain about the same intensity during the next couple
of days.  After that time, an increase in shear from the
mid-latitude trough and drier air should cause Dorian to slowly
weaken.  The GFS and ECMWF models both show Dorian becoming an
extratropical system by 96 hours, and the official forecast follows
those solutions. As this system gains latitude, the wind field is
expected to expand even more.  Therefore, even if Dorian does not
make landfall, hurricane-force winds are expected to reach portions
of the coast from central Florida to North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center.  Water levels could rise well in advance of the
arrival of strong winds.  Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

2. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia
coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing.  Residents in
these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

3. The flash flood threat will increase overnight along the Florida
east coast, then spread up the southeast and mid Atlantic coast
beginning Wednesday.  There is a moderate risk of flash flooding
from coastal Georgia through the eastern portions of South and North
Carolina Wednesday and Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 28.4N  79.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 29.4N  79.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 30.7N  79.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 31.9N  79.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 33.3N  78.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 37.1N  72.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 43.3N  62.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0000Z 51.5N  52.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion - 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 032049
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Dorian has finally begun a more definitive northwestward motion this
afternoon.  The satellite presentation of the hurricane is slightly
better in one-minute GOES 16 imagery with the large eye becoming a
little more apparent.  The eye has also become better defined in NWS
Doppler radar from Melbourne, Florida. Reconnaissance aircraft data
continue to show an expansion of the tropical-storm and 50-kt wind
radii, and it is likely that the area of hurricane-force winds
will also increase somewhat during the next 24-36 hours. The initial
intensity remains 95 kt, and is a blend of the earlier
reconnaissance data and the latest satellite estimates.  Dorian will
be moving northwestward over untapped waters east of the Florida
peninsula, which may lead to some structural re-organization, but
little overall change in intensity is expected during the next
couple of days.  After that time, a gradual decrease in the peak
wind speed and an increase in storm size are predicted while the
vertical shear increases and the storm moves farther north.  An
approaching mid-latitude trough and front will begin interacting
with the hurricane on Saturday and Dorian is forecast to become a
powerful extratropical low by 120 hours.

Dorian is now moving northwestward or 325/5 kt.  The deep-layer
trough along the east coast of the United States is expected to
amplify on Wednesday, which should cause Dorian to move at a
slightly faster north-northwestward motion tonight and Wednesday.
After that time, Dorian should turn northward, and then north-
northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough moving into the eastern
United States.  Once Dorian is offshore of eastern North Carolina,
it should accelerate northeastward within the mid-latitude
westerlies. The track envelope has edged closer to the coasts of
South Carolina and North Carolina and the NHC track has been
adjusted in that direction.  A track that close to the coast, even
if landfall does not occur, is likely to bring dangerous winds,
life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains across the eastern
portions of the Carolinas.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the
arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

2. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia
coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing. Residents in
these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

3. The flash flood threat will increase tonight along the Florida
east coast and then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic
coast during the middle and latter part of the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 27.7N  78.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 28.7N  79.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 30.0N  80.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 31.4N  80.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 32.6N  79.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 36.1N  74.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 42.0N  65.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 50.0N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion - 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 031451
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Recent radar and aircraft data show that Dorian has finally begun to
move northwestward, but dangerous winds and life-threatening storm
surge will continue over Grand Bahama Island for much of today.  The
eye has become cloud filled in infrared and visible satellite
imagery.  While aircraft and radar data indicate that the eye has
increased in size, it is also a bit more ragged.  Recent reports
from reconnaissance aircraft and data buoys indicate that overall
wind field of the hurricane is slowly expanding, while the peak
winds have come down a little more.  The latest reports from the
aircraft support an initial intensity of 95 kt.  As Dorian moves
near the east coast of Florida during the next day or two, little
overall change in intensity is anticipated.  After that time,
increasing shear should result in a gradual decrease in the peak
wind speed while the hurricane gains latitude and grows in size.
The official forecast is in good agreement with the intensity
consensus models.

The initial motion estimate is 320/2 kt.  A shortwave trough moving
into the Great Lakes region is forecast by the global models to
amplify a deep-layer trough along the east coast of the United
States on Wednesday.  This should allow Dorian to begin moving
slightly faster toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours,
followed by a northward and then northeastward motion near or over
the coasts of South and North Carolina.  After moving offshore of
the Outer Banks, Dorian should get caught in the mid-latitude
westerlies and accelerate northeastward.  The NHC track is along the
western edge of the interpolated track models through 36 hours,
closer to what is depicted in the various global fields. After that
time, the official forecast is near a blend of the faster GFS and
slower ECMWF models.

Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall
along the Florida east coast, the increasing size of Dorian's wind
field along with any deviation to the left of the forecast track
will bring hurricane-force winds onshore along portions of the
Florida east coast.

The new forecast has necessitated numerous changes to watches
and warnings along the southeastern United States coast.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand
Bahama Island for several more hours.  Everyone there should remain
in shelter.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia
and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's
center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the
arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

4. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the
Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic
coast during the middle and latter part of the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 27.1N  78.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 27.9N  79.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 29.2N  79.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 30.7N  79.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 32.1N  79.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 35.3N  75.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 40.5N  66.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 48.0N  57.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion - 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 030854
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Dorian continues to pound Grand Bahama Island early this morning
while moving little.  The eyewall has become a little less
defined over the past few hours on radar.  On infrared satellite
images, the eye remains fairly well defined, but the surrounding
deep convection is somewhat fragmented.  Upper-level outflow is a
bit restricted over the western semicircle of the circulation.  The
initial intensity is held at 105 kt, which is a blend of subjective
Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Dorian is expected to more
or less maintain its intensity for about 36 hours. After that time
period, increasing vertical shear should cause gradual weakening.
However, the system is likely to remain a major hurricane for the
next few days.  The official forecast is closest to the latest LGEM
guidance.

Dorian has been nearly stationary for the past 18 hours, as
steering currents in its vicinity have collapsed.  The global
models indicate that a weakness in the subtropical ridge will
develop in response to a trough that will amplify along the east
coast of the United States within the next day or so.  Dorian
should respond to these changes by beginning to move
north-northwestward toward the weakness in the ridge a little later
today.  The system should turn northward with a gradual increase in
forward speed as it moves through the weakness in around 48 hours.
Later in the period, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward on
the southern side of the trough.  The official track forecast is
similar to the previous one, and is fairly close to the model
consensus.

Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall
along the Florida east coast, users are reminded not to forecast on
the exact forecast track.  A relatively small deviation to the
left of this track could bring the core of the hurricane near or
over the coastline.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand
Bahama Island for several more hours.  Everyone there should remain
in shelter.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts
of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center.  Water levels could begin to rise well in advance
of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

4. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the
Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic
coast during the middle and latter part of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 26.9N  78.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 27.5N  78.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 28.5N  79.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 29.9N  79.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 31.4N  79.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 34.3N  76.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 39.0N  69.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 46.5N  59.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion - 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

426 
WTNT45 KNHC 022046
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Dorian remains an impressive hurricane in satellite imagery.
Recent radar and aircraft observations are again showing signs of
a concentric eyewall structure which might be one of the factors
that has led to a decrease in the peak winds and a small expansion
of the wind field.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported peak flight-level winds of 129 kt, SFMR winds of 121
kt, and a central pressure that has risen to 940 mb. Based on these
observations, the initial wind speed has been set at 125 kt.  Some
additional decrease in wind speed is likely in the short term due
due to a possible eyewall replacement and upwelling of cooler
waters caused by the very slow motion of the hurricane. Although
some additional slow weakening is forecast while the hurricane moves
northward along the southeastern United States coastline due to
increasing southwesterly shear, Dorian is forecast to remain a
powerful hurricane during that time.  The NHC intensity forecast
forecast is a blend of the latest statistical and and consensus
model guidance.

Dorian has become nearly stationary this afternoon with the two most
recent aircraft fixes showing essentially no motion.  A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion should resume overnight and
continue into early Tuesday, with the eye and devastating winds only
slowly pulling away from Grand Bahama Island.  By Tuesday afternoon,
Dorian should begin its much anticipated northwestward turn as a
weakness becomes more pronounced in the subtropical ridge.  Although
the center of Dorian is forecast to move near, but parallel to, the
Florida east coast, only a small deviation of the track toward the
west would bring the core of the hurricane onshore.  A broad mid-
latitude trough should help turn Dorian northeastward by Wednesday
night, and the track models show the center coming precariously
close to the southeastern United States coast.  The tracks from the
1200 UTC runs of the global models have remained fairly stable,
which has resulted in little overall change to the latest NHC track
forecast.

Users are reminded that the hurricane is not a point, and that
life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds extend far
from the center. Regardless of the exact forecast track, strong
winds and a life-threatening storm surge are likely along a portion
of the U.S east coast from Florida through the Carolinas.

Key Messages:

1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand
Bahama Island through tonight. Everyone there should remain in
shelter and not venture into the eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts
of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of
the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coast North Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States through Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 26.8N  78.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 27.0N  78.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 27.6N  79.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 28.7N  79.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 30.0N  80.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 32.8N  78.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 36.6N  73.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 43.5N  64.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$
Forecaster Brown


1011ct090219

Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion - 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 021451
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Satellite and radar imagery show that Dorian is moving very slowly
over Grand Bahama Island this morning.  The hurricane remains quite
symmetric and still exhibits a very well-defined eye, but there is
somewhat less evidence of concentric eyewalls in Bahamas radar
imagery.  Satellite intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS, SAB, and
TAFB are slightly lower this morning, and the initial intensity has
been reduced to 135 kt.  As Dorian moves very slowly during the
next 24 hours, some upwelling in the deeper waters around the
Bahamas could cause some gradual weakening. After that time, the
hurricane is expected to experience a gradual increase in
southwesterly shear, which should lead to a slow decrease in wind
speed.  However, Dorian is forecast to remain a very powerful
hurricane while it moves near the southeastern United States coast.
The NHC intensity forecast is close to the statistical guidance
during the first day or so, then near the HFIP corrected consensus
model later in the period.

As anticipated, the ridge to the north of the storm has weakened
and the eye of Dorian has only been inching westward this morning.
The hurricane is expected to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next 24 hours, which will cause a prolonged period of
devastating winds and storm surge over Grand Bahama Island. By late
Tuesday, the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced and
Dorian should turn northwestward near the east coast of the Florida.
By day 3, the hurricane is expected to make a northeastward turn
ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough.  The overall track envelope
has not changed much, and little adjustment to the previous NHC
forecast was required.

It cannot be stressed enough that only a small deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of the extremely
dangerous hurricane onshore of the Florida east coast within the
hurricane warning area.  In addition, Dorian's wind field is
predicted to expand, which would bring hurricane-force winds closer
to the east coast of Florida even if the track does change.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will
continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight.
Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the
eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and Georgia
coast, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water
levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong
winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coasts of South Carolina and
North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given
by local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States into Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 26.8N  78.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 26.9N  78.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 27.2N  79.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 28.1N  79.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 29.3N  80.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 32.0N  79.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 35.4N  75.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 40.7N  66.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$
Forecaster Brown

900ct090219

Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion - 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 020852
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Satellite imagery continues to show that Dorian has an extremely
well-defined eye embedded within very cold cloud tops.  The
diameter of the eye appears to have expanded to near 20 n mi, and
radar data, especially from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology
radar, show that there are concentric eyewalls. The hurricane also
continues to exhibit strong upper-tropospheric outflow.  The initial
intensity estimate has been reduced to 145 kt, which lies between
earlier Hurricane Hunter estimates and satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB.  This lowering of intensity is consistent with
the development of a concentric eyewall. During the next few days,
Dorian should be encountering some increase in shear, which will
likely result in weakening.  However it is anticipated that the
system will remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next several
days.  The official intensity forecast lies between the
statistical-dynamical guidance and the corrected multi-model
consensus.

Steering currents have weakened, and Dorian has almost come to a
standstill over eastern Grand Bahama Island, with an initial motion
of 270/1 kt.  The mid-tropospheric high to the north of the
hurricane that had been steering Dorian westward has collapsed.
Global models indicate that, in a couple of days, a weakness in the
ridge will develop along 75W-80W.  This would likely cause Dorian to
move northwestward to northward toward and through this weakness.
Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to accelerate
northeastward on the southern side of a broad mid-tropospheric
trough. The official track forecast is very close to the previous
one and to the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA.  Although
the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the
Florida east coast, it is still possible for the hurricane to
deviate from this forecast, and move very near or over the coast.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track.


Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will
continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight.
Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the
eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surges and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through
mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only
a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring
the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast.  Residents
should listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous
storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina later this week.  Residents in these areas should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by
local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States into Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 26.6N  78.2W  145 KT 165 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 26.7N  78.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 26.9N  79.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 27.6N  79.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 28.7N  80.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 31.3N  79.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 34.5N  76.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 38.5N  70.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$
Forecaster Pasch

kamx_20190902_0059_BR-public

Hurricane Dorian - 9/1/19 900 PM Update - EYE NEARING EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019 
900 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 

CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO BATTER THE ABACOS...
...EYE NEARING EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA...

This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents in the Abacos
should continue to stay in their shelter as the northern eyewall of
Dorian remains over the area. Residents in eastern Grand Bahama are
experiencing the western eyewall. Do not leave your shelter as the
eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other side
of the eye.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto
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