Feb 22, 2020 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Categorical Graphic 20200222 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic 20200222 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic 20200222 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic 20200222 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic Probability of hail 1″ or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2″ or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 221923

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0123 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020

   Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest.

   ...Discussion...
   No appreciable change is needed to the previous convective outlook.

   ..Smith.. 02/22/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2020/

   ...Southwest States...
   Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low moving slowly eastward
   into southern CA.  A plume of midlevel moisture and weak lift ahead
   of the upper low is affecting much of the Southwest states, with
   scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region. 
   This pattern will persist through most of the forecast period, with
   strong/severe storms unlikely.

   One possible exception will be over parts of northwest and north
   central AZ this afternoon and early evening.  Partial clearing skies
   and proximity to cold upper low will provide a slightly more
   unstable air mass over this area.  Several 12z CAM solutions suggest
   one or two transient rotating storms will traverse this area posing
   a risk of small hail.  But overall, the risk of severe storms seems
   too low to warrant a MRGL risk.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z