Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard Forecast Discussion

WTNT45 KNHC 062033

Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
500 PM AST Mon Jul 06 2020

Although Edouard continues to produce some deep convection, recent
satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the center of
the cyclone has merged with a frontal boundary. Therefore, the
system is now classified as extratropical and this is the last
advisory. The scatterometer data showed max winds of 35-40 kt, so
the initial intensity remains 40 kt.  The 35 kt wind radii were 
also increased in the southeast quadrant based on the scatterometer 

The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to continue moving quickly 
northeastward for the next day or so until it is absorbed into a 
larger frontal zone over the north Atlantic late Tuesday or early 
Wednesday. The NHC track and intensity forecast is close to the 
global model consensus, and all of those models are in good 
agreement for the next 24 h.

This is the last NHC advisory on Edouard. Additional information on 
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header 
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at


INIT  06/2100Z 42.7N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  07/0600Z 45.1N  40.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  07/1800Z 48.5N  33.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion

WTNT45 KNHC 060238

Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020

Satellite images indicate that the cyclone has become better 
organized during the past several hours, with a large convective 
burst causing a better-defined low-level circulation.  While the 
center is now becoming exposed due to southwesterly shear, the 
maximum winds have almost certainly increased from earlier, so the 
initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. A recent partial ASCAT pass of 
at least 30 kt outside the RMW also supports the upgrade to a 
tropical storm, and the CIMSS satellite consensus (SATCON) is even 
higher than the analyzed intensity.  

Edouard is moving northeastward even faster than before, or 055/30 
kt. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on a quick 
northeastward or east-northeastward motion for the next couple of 
days before the system degenerates into a trough.  Extratropical 
transition is anticipated by 24 hours due to forcing from a 
middle-latitude trough and a frontal boundary.  Some minor 
strengthening of Edouard due to the transition process is possible 
over the next day or so before the global models show a gradual 
weakening.  The track forecast has been adjusted a bit faster to 
account for the latest guidance and initial forward speed, and the 
intensity forecast has also been nudged upward to account for the 
current wind speed.

Edouard is the earliest known 5th named storm on record for the 
Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the 
record formerly held by Emily on July 12, 2005. 


INIT  06/0300Z 37.2N  56.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 39.6N  51.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 42.9N  44.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  07/1200Z 46.5N  37.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/0000Z 50.0N  29.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Blake

Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion

WTNT45 KNHC 041451

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020

Late yesterday, a small low pressure system developed near the end 
of a boundary over the western Atlantic. The low persisted overnight 
while producing convection that has shown increasing signs of 
organization. Although the low's center has recently become 
obscured, earlier one-minute visible imagery confirmed that it is 
well-defined. The system therefore meets the necessary criteria to 
be designated as a tropical cyclone. A TAFB Dvorak classification of 
2.0 is the basis for the 30 kt initial intensity.

The depression is moving quickly toward the east-northeast, caught 
in the flow between a mid-level ridge to its south and a a trough 
to its north. This steering pattern is expected to be fairly stable 
for the next day or so, and the guidance is in good agreement that 
the cyclone will continue on its current general heading with an 
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The NHC 
track forecast closely follows the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

The depression has a sheared appearance, with no convection 
northwest of its low-level center. A combination of strong 
upper-level westerly winds and dry mid-level air to the northwest 
are likely the cause of this, and it is unlikely that the cyclone 
will get much better organized during the next day or two. That 
said, some minimal strengthening is possible, even if only due to 
the expected increase of the cyclone's forward speed. The NHC 
intensity forecast is based on a consensus of the HWRF, HMON, and 
GFS models. It is worth noting that the statistical guidance 
indicates more strengthening is possible, but this is not currently 
supported by any dynamical models. There is less agreement on the 
system's future beyond the weekend. It could open into a trough and 
dissipate or persist long enough to undergo extratropical 
transition. Since this is the first advisory, the official forecast 
is somewhat conservative and maintains the system as a closed low 
for 60 h, but it could certainly dissipate sooner than that.


INIT  04/1500Z 31.1N  68.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 32.1N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 34.0N  63.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 36.4N  59.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 39.2N  52.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 41.7N  46.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Zelinsky


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