Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion

WTNT45 KNHC 040232

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020

The larger mass of deep convection from earlier today that was south 
of the exposed low-level center of Omar has since dissipated. The 
only convection that remains is a few small patches in the eastern 
semicircle. The initial intensity is being lowered to 25 kt, and is 
based off a recent ASCAT overpass showing peak 26 kt wind vectors. 
If the current state of the tropical depression persists through 
much of tonight, then by definition the system would no longer 
qualify as a tropical cyclone. The only chance for Omar to hang on 
despite very strong northerly wind shear is the fact that it is 
still over SSTs of about 27 C. After 24 h, dry air is expected to 
envelop the system. Therefore, over this weekend whatever remains of 
Omar is expected to dissipate ahead of an approaching mid-latitude 
frontal system. The official NHC forecast shows Omar degenerating 
into a remnant low by Friday morning and dissipating by Sunday 
morning, and this scenario is in agreement with the global models.

The depression continues to move east-southeast at 9 kt in steering
flow around a subtropical ridge to its south, and another, larger
low pressure system to its northeast. The other low is forecast to
continue to lift northeastward, which should result in an end to the
southerly component of Omar's motion tonight or early Friday. By
Friday night, a turn to the northeast is expected to occur as Omar
gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching frontal
system. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the
previous one, and lies near the various consensus aids.


INIT  04/0300Z 35.2N  59.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 35.2N  58.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/0000Z 35.6N  57.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1200Z 36.8N  56.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 38.3N  55.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Latto


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