Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion

WTNT45 KNHC 051439

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020

Omar is barely a tropical cyclone.  The center is completely exposed 
to the north of a slowly shrinking area of sheared deep convection.  
The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.  Omar 
remains in an environment of northerly wind shear, dry air, and it 
is headed toward cool waters.  These conditions should cause Omar to 
finally become a remnant low soon.  Although the forecast shows the 
system becoming a remnant low at 24 hours, it certainty could become 
one at any time before then after its limited amount of deep 
convection dissipates.  Satellite images show an approaching cold 
front about 300 n mi to the northwest of Omar.  This front is 
expected to merge with the system, causing Omar or its remnants to 
become extratropical by Sunday afternoon.

The tropical depression is now moving northward at 9 kt.  A much 
faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the 
remainder of the weekend as Omar, or its remnants, become more 
embedded in the fast steering flow ahead of the aforementioned cold 


INIT  05/1500Z 37.4N  57.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 39.0N  56.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 41.9N  53.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0000Z 45.2N  49.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Cangialosi

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