Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Forecast Discussion


808 
WTNT45 KNHC 052031
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 05 2020

Omar continues to separate from a small lingering area of deep
convection that is located more than 100 n mi south-southwest of
the center.  During the past couple of days, Omar has produced just
enough convection to maintain its status of a tropical depression,
but now it no longer meets the criteria of sufficently organized
deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone.  Therefore,
this is the last advisory on Omar issued by NHC.  The initial
intensity of the remnant low is 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data
that showed a region of 25-30 kt winds east of the center.

The remnant low is moving northward at 9 kt, a couple of hundred
miles east of a cold front.  The models suggest that the remnants
of Omar should accelerate north-northeastward and merge with the
front in about 24 hours, leading to extratropical transition.
Dissipation is expected shortly thereafter.

For additional and future information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 38.4N  56.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  06/0600Z 40.2N  55.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/1800Z 43.3N  52.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


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