Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 130247
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

The depression is poorly organized at this time. A large convective
band wraps around the northern and western portions of the cyclone,
but its center of circulation is exposed and appears to have become
somewhat elongated. Recent ASCAT data and the latest TAFB Dvorak
analysis indicate that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt.

It will take some time for the depression to get better organized,
and only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 h.
After that time, the cyclone's environment is expected to support
intensification, and the intensity guidance is quite aggressive.
While the exact timing is somewhat uncertain, it is probable that
the system will become a hurricane early next week. The new NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted higher than the previous
advisory beyond 48 h, but it is below or near the model consensus at
all times.

Little change was made to the NHC track forecast. The depression
appears to be moving generally west-northwestward near 9 kt. In
general, the system should continue west-northwestward for the next
couple of days, with some slight fluctuations in its track possible
tonight and tomorrow as the center consolidates. A weakness in the
subtropical ridge is expected to develop by the middle of next week
that could steer the cyclone more toward the northwest. The guidance
is in very good agreement on this general scenario, though
confidence in the forecast will be somewhat low until the system
becomes a little better organized and strengthens. The official
forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 11.9N  34.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 12.3N  35.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 12.9N  37.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 13.5N  40.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 14.1N  42.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  15/1200Z 14.8N  44.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 15.9N  46.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 18.5N  49.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 21.5N  51.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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