Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Discussion


700 
WTNT45 KNHC 141442
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

A timely 1156 UTC ASCAT-A pass was very helpful in locating the 
center of Teddy, which was farther south and west than previously 
estimated. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern is 
gradually becoming better organized, with the center located near 
the northern edge of a curved convective band. Based on the ASCAT 
data and the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB and SAB, the 
intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. 

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 270/12. Despite 
the adjustment to the center position, the overall track forecast 
reasoning has not changed. Teddy will be steered by a deep-layer 
ridge located over the central Atlantic, which should result in a 
west-northwestward motion resuming by tonight. The ridge is 
forecast to shift eastward with time, and Teddy is forecast to turn 
more northwestward in a couple of days around the western edge of 
the ridge. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted about a 
degree to the left of the previous NHC prediction, largely due to 
the adjustment in the initial position, and lies near the 
consensus aids and the middle of the guidance envelope. 

Teddy will be moving through a favorable environment for 
intensification for the next several days, with SSTs increasing 
along the forecast track and shear remaining relatively low. The 
new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, showing 
Teddy becoming a hurricane in 36 hours and reaching major hurricane 
strength in 4 to 5 days. This forecast is close to IVCN through the 
first 48 hours and then trends toward the higher HCCA guidance 
after that time. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 12.8N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 13.2N  44.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 13.9N  46.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 14.7N  48.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 15.7N  49.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  17/0000Z 16.9N  51.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 18.3N  52.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 21.0N  54.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 24.0N  57.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan


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