Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 160646
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Special Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Teddy has rapidly intensified overnight.  Satellite images show an 
eye has formed, and satellite intensity estimates are between 77- 
90 kt.  The initial wind speed is set to 80 kt as a blend of these 
data.  Further strengthening is expected and Teddy could become a 
major hurricane later today or Thursday.  The intensity forecast 
has been raised considerably in the short-term based on current 
trends, and could have to revised upward on the regular 5 am 
advisory.  

No changes to the track forecast are needed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0700Z 15.5N  48.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 16.0N  49.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 17.3N  50.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 18.8N  52.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 20.2N  53.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  18/1200Z 21.6N  54.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 23.0N  56.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 26.5N  60.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 29.5N  62.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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