Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion


737 
WTNT45 KNHC 231436
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

Surface observations indicate that Teddy made landfall this morning 
near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia, near 1200 UTC with estimated maximum 
sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum pressure of 964 mb.  Since 
then, the storm has continued to race across Nova Scotia and is 
slowly weakening.  The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt.  Teddy 
should move north-northeastward across the Gulf of St. Lawrence this 
afternoon then move near Newfoundland by tonight.  After passing 
east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy merging 
with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. No 
significant changes were made to the previous track or intensity 
forecasts, which are similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells 
creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the 
southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy today is large
destructive waves along the southeastern coast of Nova Scotia. 
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of 
Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen 
Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected 
through Thursday.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 46.0N  61.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  24/0000Z 49.5N  58.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  24/1200Z 54.5N  54.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


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