Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 021456
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL252020
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Visible satellite images show that cloudiness and showers associated 
with the low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea have 
become significantly better organized since yesterday, with 
convective banding features becoming prominent. Moreover, low cloud 
motions suggest that a closed circulation has become better defined. 
 Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression 
Twenty-Five at this time.  The initial intensity estimate is 30 kt 
based on Dvorak T-numbers, but an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today to 
provide a better intensity estimate.  Sea surface temperatures are 
very warm, near 30 deg C, and vertical shear should remain low for 
at least the next couple of days, so the cyclone is likely to become 
a tropical storm by the time it nears the Yucatan Peninsula 
tomorrow.  The main impediment to strengthening over the next few 
days should be the interaction with land.  Given the uncertainties 
about how far offshore the center will be over the next several 
days, the official intensity forecast is conservative.

Since there is still a lot of scatter in the center fixes, the 
initial motion estimate, 315/8 kt, is rather uncertain.  For the 
next couple of days, the system is expected to move northwestward to 
north-northwestward on the southwestern edge of a mid-level high 
pressure area.  This would take the center near or over the 
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.  After about 48 hours, the steering 
currents are not well-defined and there is considerable spread in 
the track models.  At this time, it appears the cyclone should move 
slowly westward over the latter part of the forecast period in 
response to weak ridging over the north-central Gulf of Mexico.  The 
official forecast is near or a little north of the corrected and 
simple model consensus predictions.

Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches have been issued for a portion
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could
result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in
the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on
Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 18.1N  84.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 18.9N  85.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 19.8N  86.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 20.6N  87.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1200Z 21.4N  87.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/0000Z 22.0N  87.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 22.0N  88.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 21.5N  90.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 21.5N  92.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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