Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 132038
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL302020
900 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020

Theta appears to be holding its own still, with a large curved band 
feature characterizing the bulk of the deep convection, and a 
smaller area of convection intermittently developing over the 
center. Like yesterday, there has been a lack of observational data 
over the system's core since last night. However, since Theta's 
organization has not appeared to change much since that time, the 
initial intensity is being kept at a somewhat uncertain 50 kt.

Theta is forecast to change little in intensity into tonight as the 
cyclone continues moving in a relatively low shear zone associated 
with a mid- to upper-level trough axis.  By tomorrow, strong 
northerly shear is forecast to begin impacting the system while 
stable air gets entrained into its circulation.  As a result, Theta 
is expected to spin down over the weekend, degenerate to a remnant 
low on Sunday, and dissipate by the middle of next week.

Theta is moving eastward at around 9 kt, steered by a mid-level 
ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern tropical 
Atlantic. A turn to the east-southeast along with a gradual slowing 
of the forward motion is expected overnight and continuing through 
the weekend as the ridge weakens, and mid- to upper level northerly 
winds impart on the cyclone. Early next week, what remains of Theta 
are expected to turn northward and then accelerate northeastward as 
a mid-latitude cyclone passes to the north of the region.  The NHC 
forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the 
various consensus aids. On the forecast track, the center of Theta 
is forecast to track very near the westernmost Canary Islands. 
However, the system is forecast to weaken to a remnant low before 
reaching those islands. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 31.9N  22.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 31.7N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 31.4N  19.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 31.3N  18.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 31.7N  17.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  16/0600Z 32.5N  17.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1800Z 34.4N  17.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/1800Z 39.2N  12.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

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