Tropical Depression Theta Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 150837
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Theta Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL302020
900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020

Theta is barely a tropical cyclone. The only remnants of deep
convection are a small area of warming cloud tops, located around 
90 n mi to the southeast of Theta's exposed center. The cyclone has
produced little central convection all day, so it is assumed that at
least slight weakening has occurred and the intensity is set at
30 kt. This also agrees with a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T
and CI numbers from TAFB. If Theta does not redevelop substantial
inner-core convection soon, it will likely become a remnant low
later today.

The cyclone has slowed down and is moving eastward with an initial 
motion of 090/4 kt. A continued slow eastward track is expected 
today, before a ridge centered over northwestern Africa begins to 
steer the cyclone northward on Monday. Although Theta could continue 
to produce intermittent bursts of convection, no significant 
redevelopment is anticipated due to surrounding dry air and cool 
underlying SSTs. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low 
within 12 h and dissipate in 60 h. No major changes were made to the 
NHC track or intensity forecasts, both of which are based on the 
multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 31.8N  18.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 31.9N  17.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0600Z 33.1N  17.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1800Z 35.5N  16.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0600Z 39.0N  14.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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