Dec 27, 2020 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Categorical Graphic 20201227 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic 20201227 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic 20201227 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic 20201227 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic Probability of hail 1″ or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2″ or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 271941

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0141 PM CST Sun Dec 27 2020

   Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Showers, possibly with a few embedded lightning flashes, will spread
   across a portion of the southern/central California coast tonight.

   ...Discussion...
   No changes are being made to the ongoing outlook; a few lightning
   flashes remain possible near the southern California coast tonight.

   ..Goss.. 12/27/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 27 2020/

   ...Southern/central CA coast...
   A vigorous shortwave trough near 35 N and 130 W will progress
   east-southeast and reach the southern/central CA coast by 12Z
   tomorrow. Cooling mid-level temperatures and steepening low to
   mid-level lapse rates will accompany this trough as it approaches
   the coast, in the zone of ascent within the left-exit region of a
   100+ kt 500-mb jet. Lightning detection data have revealed sporadic
   thunderstorms just ahead of the trough over the eastern Pacific.
   While buoyancy will remain scant, a threat for isolated
   thunderstorms is expected along the coast between 06-12Z. This
   activity will remain low-topped with the intense southwest flow
   aloft holding at or above the EL, minimizing the risk for severe
   storms.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z