Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 240243
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

Teddy is accelerating over the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence and
will move over the Strait of Belle Isle later, while continuing
to fill/decay as an extratropical cyclone.  The initial intensity
is set at 45 kt, and this is based on the various surface wind and
pressure observations along the west coast of Newfoundland from
Channel-Port aux Basques northward to Port Saunders and the Straits. 
Teddy is forecast to maintain its current intensity and motion, 
with some further increase in forward speed, and merge with a 
larger, stronger high-latitude extratropical low near the Labrador 
Sea on Thursday.

Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells
creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days.

This will be the last NHC advisory on Teddy.  For additional
information, including warnings, consult products issued by 
Environment Canada at:  weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

For marine interests, additional information can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 51.0N  57.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  24/1200Z 54.7N  54.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  25/0000Z...MERGED WITH A LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion


737 
WTNT45 KNHC 231436
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

Surface observations indicate that Teddy made landfall this morning 
near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia, near 1200 UTC with estimated maximum 
sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum pressure of 964 mb.  Since 
then, the storm has continued to race across Nova Scotia and is 
slowly weakening.  The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt.  Teddy 
should move north-northeastward across the Gulf of St. Lawrence this 
afternoon then move near Newfoundland by tonight.  After passing 
east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy merging 
with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. No 
significant changes were made to the previous track or intensity 
forecasts, which are similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells 
creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the 
southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy today is large
destructive waves along the southeastern coast of Nova Scotia. 
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of 
Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen 
Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected 
through Thursday.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 46.0N  61.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  24/0000Z 49.5N  58.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  24/1200Z 54.5N  54.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion


377 
WTNT45 KNHC 220248
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter found Teddy a little stronger
this evening.  Flight level peak wind was 111 kt in the east
quadrant and the highest observed SFMR wind was 69 kt.  A blend of 
these data yields an initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory.

Teddy is accelerating toward the north in response to a mid- to
upper tropospheric mid-latitude trough approaching from the
northwest.  Dynamic forcing produced by the aforementioned
baroclinic system and warm (27-28C) waters associated with the Gulf
Stream could induce a short period of strengthening during the
next few hours, or so.  Through the remaining portion of the
forecast period, Teddy will traverse cooler oceanic temperatures
north of the Gulf Stream and lose its baroclinic support inducing a
gradual weakening trend as the post-tropical cyclone quickly moves
over eastern Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Newfoundland.
After that time, Teddy should become absorbed by a larger 
non-tropical, high latitude low pressure system.  There still 
remains much uncertainty as to whether or not Teddy will complete 
its extratropical transition prior to reaching Nova Scotia.  The 
global models show the cyclone merged or embedded in the baroclinic 
zone, but the associated simulated infrared presentation shows 
Teddy maintaining a rather small warm, inner core.  Regardless of 
it classification during that time, high winds, heavy rain, storm 
surge and destructive waves are still predicted for the south coast 
of Nova Scotia.

Teddy's horizontal wind profile is forecast to nearly double during
the next couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with
the aforementioned baroclinic system.  Gale-force winds are likely
along portions of the near shore waters of the northeast United
States.  The forecast wind radii at the 24 hour period and beyond
are based on the RVCN Wind Radii Consensus model that consists of a
bias-corrected average of the global and regional models.

Please see products from your local office for more
information about marine hazards, including extremely dangerous rip
currents expected over much of the western Atlantic beaches.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late Tuesday through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain,
and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings
are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and
Newfoundland.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy 
between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical 
cyclone. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 35.6N  61.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 38.4N  62.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 41.1N  63.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 44.6N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 49.0N  58.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  24/1200Z 52.8N  54.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/0000Z 58.1N  51.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 201455
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

The satellite signature of Teddy has degraded from an eye pattern 
overnight into a central dense overcast this morning.  Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the hurricane 
has weakened, and the initial wind speed is set to 90 kt, perhaps 
generously.  The aircraft data does still show that Teddy remains a 
large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward in the 
northeastward quadrant to about 70 n mi.

While the forecast intensity does not change much over the next 
couple of days, the hurricane should undergo significant changes 
during that time.  Teddy should not lose any more strength by late 
today due to favorable positioning with an approaching trough, and 
the gale-force winds should greatly expand due to this trough 
interaction. In 2 or 3 days, after the system occludes and becomes 
post-tropical, the cyclone should weaken because of a loss of  
extratropical forcing while over the cooler water south of Nova 
Scotia.  Eventually Teddy will probably get absorbed by a larger 
extratropical low around day 5.  Model guidance is fairly tightly 
packed around the official wind forecast, which leans on the global 
models given the substantial extratropical contributions, plus or 
minus 5 kt throughout the forecast period.

The hurricane has resumed a northwestward motion or 320/8 kt. Teddy 
is likely to turn northward today and north-northeastward tomorrow 
due to the aforementioned trough. By early Tuesday, the cyclone 
should turn back to the north-northwest as it rotates around the 
same trough, then turn northeastward early Wednesday ahead of yet 
another trough moving into from eastern Canada.  Although the 
forecast evolution is complex, model guidance is in remarkably good 
agreement, and no substantial changes were made to the previous 
forecast. Regardless of the details, every model has a rather large 
and strong post-tropical cyclone south of Nova Scotia in about 3 
days.


Key Messages:

1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on 
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning 
this evening and could continue into Monday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical 
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early 
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from 
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor 
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of 
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the 
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next 
few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 28.3N  62.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 29.2N  63.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 31.0N  62.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 34.8N  62.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 38.8N  63.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 41.7N  63.4W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/1200Z 44.5N  62.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  24/1200Z 53.0N  53.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  25/1200Z 60.5N  39.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 190259
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

Teddy continues to have an impressive appearance on satellite 
images with a fairly symmetrical Central Dense Overcast, although 
recent images show some warming of the cloud tops over the 
southeastern part of the circulation.  Upper-level outflow is 
well-defined over the northern semicircle of the hurricane and 
not as strong to the south.  Earlier microwave images showed a 
concentric eyewall structure and it appears that the hurricane has 
re-intensified slightly over the past several hours.  The current 
intensity estimate is set at 115 kt which is a blend of subjective 
and objective Dvorak estimates.  Some additional fluctuations in 
strength as a result of eyewall replacements could occur through 
Saturday.  On Sunday and beyond, a less conducive oceanic and 
atmospheric environment should lead to slow weakening.  However, 
Teddy should remain a powerful hurricane for the next several days. 
The numerical guidance shows that the circulation will become even 
larger during the forecast period due to Teddy combined with a 
high pressure area coming behind a cold front over the eastern 
United States.  Teddy is expected to make the transition to an 
extratropical cyclone when  it moves into Atlantic Canada.   

The hurricane continues its northwestward trek and is moving around 
325/11 kt.  Teddy should move around the western side of a 
subtropical high pressure system for the next day or so.  Then, the 
cyclone should turn northward with an increase in forward speed as 
it approaches a strong mid-latitude trough cutting off into a low 
as it moves off the northeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days.  The track 
of the system could bend a bit the left as it interacts with the 
trough/low while approaching Nova Scotia.  Around the end of the 
forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn 
northeastward as it moves along the eastern side of a mid-level 
trough.  The official track forecast is close to the corrected model 
consensus.

Teddy is producing seas to 48 feet and an extensive area of large 
waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic 
basin.  See the Key Messages below.


Key Messages:

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the
weekend.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 24.0N  57.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 25.5N  58.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 27.3N  60.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 29.0N  61.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 30.8N  62.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  21/1200Z 33.5N  61.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 37.7N  61.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 45.5N  62.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  24/0000Z 50.5N  56.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 171502 CCA
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  21...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

Corrected to add Key Messages 

Since the previous advisory, Teddy's satellite appearance has 
steadily improved. There is now a ragged warming eye surrounded by a 
ring of convection with cloud tops colder than -60 degrees C. Very 
recently the objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS 
have been rapidly increasing. And although a blend of the 1130 and 
1200 UTC Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, respectively, 
averaged out to an intensity of about 95 kt, the improved satellite 
presentation since that time suggests that the hurricane should have 
winds of at least 105 kt, which is the initial intensity for this 
advisory, which could even be a little conservative based on the 
latest UW-CIMMS ADT and SATCON values of 120 and 111 kt, 
respectively. There will be NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft inside Teddy later today, which should provide much 
more detail on the structure and intensity of Teddy.

The only negative factor for intensification during the next 24 h is 
about 10 to 15 kt of vertical wind shear. However, Teddy has been 
able to begin the latest burst of intensification despite that 
shear. Therefore additional strengthening is anticipated through 
this evening, and Teddy is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane 
by tonight. The overall environment does not change significantly 
for the next couple of days, so other than some fluctuations 
intensity such as due to potential eyewall replacement cycles, no 
change in strength is indicated during that time. As Teddy continues 
moving northwest over the weekend, it is likely to begin to 
encounter some of the cooler waters upwelled by Hurricane Paulette 
last week. This could cause the cyclone to slowly weaken. By late 
this weekend, increasing vertical wind shear should also contribute 
to weakening. Due to the fast increase in intensity this morning, 
the latest NHC intensity is a bit higher than all of the guidance 
for the first 48 h, but the overall intensity trends are closely 
mirrored by the various multi-model consensus. Beyond 48 h, the NHC 
forecast closely follows the LGEM guidance. 

Teddy continues to move northwestward at 10 kt. The track
forecast and reasoning both remain straightforward and unchanged for
the next 72 h. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent
agreement that a deep-layer ridge situated over the central Atlantic
will force Teddy on a northwestward track toward the western
Atlantic.  There is a little less divergence among the models on
days 4 and 5 then on previous cycles, and these differences are 
due to timing differences in where and how fast the hurricane
begins to recurve ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and
frontal system moving off the coast of the eastern United States in
about 3 days.  The new NHC track forecast is little changed from 
the previous one, and is in the middle of the tightly clustered 
track guidance. On the forecast track, Teddy will make its closest 
approach to Bermuda on Monday.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this 
weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or 
Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near 
the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, 
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing. 

2. Swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the 
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the 
southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend.  
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 19.3N  53.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 20.4N  54.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 21.8N  55.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 23.5N  57.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 25.5N  58.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  20/0000Z 27.3N  60.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 28.7N  62.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 32.4N  63.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 38.9N  62.3W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 160646
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Special Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Teddy has rapidly intensified overnight.  Satellite images show an 
eye has formed, and satellite intensity estimates are between 77- 
90 kt.  The initial wind speed is set to 80 kt as a blend of these 
data.  Further strengthening is expected and Teddy could become a 
major hurricane later today or Thursday.  The intensity forecast 
has been raised considerably in the short-term based on current 
trends, and could have to revised upward on the regular 5 am 
advisory.  

No changes to the track forecast are needed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0700Z 15.5N  48.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 16.0N  49.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 17.3N  50.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 18.8N  52.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 20.2N  53.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  18/1200Z 21.6N  54.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 23.0N  56.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 26.5N  60.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 29.5N  62.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Discussion


700 
WTNT45 KNHC 141442
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

A timely 1156 UTC ASCAT-A pass was very helpful in locating the 
center of Teddy, which was farther south and west than previously 
estimated. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern is 
gradually becoming better organized, with the center located near 
the northern edge of a curved convective band. Based on the ASCAT 
data and the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB and SAB, the 
intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. 

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 270/12. Despite 
the adjustment to the center position, the overall track forecast 
reasoning has not changed. Teddy will be steered by a deep-layer 
ridge located over the central Atlantic, which should result in a 
west-northwestward motion resuming by tonight. The ridge is 
forecast to shift eastward with time, and Teddy is forecast to turn 
more northwestward in a couple of days around the western edge of 
the ridge. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted about a 
degree to the left of the previous NHC prediction, largely due to 
the adjustment in the initial position, and lies near the 
consensus aids and the middle of the guidance envelope. 

Teddy will be moving through a favorable environment for 
intensification for the next several days, with SSTs increasing 
along the forecast track and shear remaining relatively low. The 
new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, showing 
Teddy becoming a hurricane in 36 hours and reaching major hurricane 
strength in 4 to 5 days. This forecast is close to IVCN through the 
first 48 hours and then trends toward the higher HCCA guidance 
after that time. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 12.8N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 13.2N  44.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 13.9N  46.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 14.7N  48.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 15.7N  49.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  17/0000Z 16.9N  51.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 18.3N  52.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 21.0N  54.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 24.0N  57.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 130247
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

The depression is poorly organized at this time. A large convective
band wraps around the northern and western portions of the cyclone,
but its center of circulation is exposed and appears to have become
somewhat elongated. Recent ASCAT data and the latest TAFB Dvorak
analysis indicate that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt.

It will take some time for the depression to get better organized,
and only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 h.
After that time, the cyclone's environment is expected to support
intensification, and the intensity guidance is quite aggressive.
While the exact timing is somewhat uncertain, it is probable that
the system will become a hurricane early next week. The new NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted higher than the previous
advisory beyond 48 h, but it is below or near the model consensus at
all times.

Little change was made to the NHC track forecast. The depression
appears to be moving generally west-northwestward near 9 kt. In
general, the system should continue west-northwestward for the next
couple of days, with some slight fluctuations in its track possible
tonight and tomorrow as the center consolidates. A weakness in the
subtropical ridge is expected to develop by the middle of next week
that could steer the cyclone more toward the northwest. The guidance
is in very good agreement on this general scenario, though
confidence in the forecast will be somewhat low until the system
becomes a little better organized and strengthens. The official
forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 11.9N  34.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 12.3N  35.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 12.9N  37.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 13.5N  40.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 14.1N  42.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  15/1200Z 14.8N  44.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 15.9N  46.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 18.5N  49.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 21.5N  51.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Forecast Discussion


808 
WTNT45 KNHC 052031
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 05 2020

Omar continues to separate from a small lingering area of deep
convection that is located more than 100 n mi south-southwest of
the center.  During the past couple of days, Omar has produced just
enough convection to maintain its status of a tropical depression,
but now it no longer meets the criteria of sufficently organized
deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone.  Therefore,
this is the last advisory on Omar issued by NHC.  The initial
intensity of the remnant low is 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data
that showed a region of 25-30 kt winds east of the center.

The remnant low is moving northward at 9 kt, a couple of hundred
miles east of a cold front.  The models suggest that the remnants
of Omar should accelerate north-northeastward and merge with the
front in about 24 hours, leading to extratropical transition.
Dissipation is expected shortly thereafter.

For additional and future information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 38.4N  56.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  06/0600Z 40.2N  55.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/1800Z 43.3N  52.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


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