1011ct090219

Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion - 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 021451
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Satellite and radar imagery show that Dorian is moving very slowly
over Grand Bahama Island this morning.  The hurricane remains quite
symmetric and still exhibits a very well-defined eye, but there is
somewhat less evidence of concentric eyewalls in Bahamas radar
imagery.  Satellite intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS, SAB, and
TAFB are slightly lower this morning, and the initial intensity has
been reduced to 135 kt.  As Dorian moves very slowly during the
next 24 hours, some upwelling in the deeper waters around the
Bahamas could cause some gradual weakening. After that time, the
hurricane is expected to experience a gradual increase in
southwesterly shear, which should lead to a slow decrease in wind
speed.  However, Dorian is forecast to remain a very powerful
hurricane while it moves near the southeastern United States coast.
The NHC intensity forecast is close to the statistical guidance
during the first day or so, then near the HFIP corrected consensus
model later in the period.

As anticipated, the ridge to the north of the storm has weakened
and the eye of Dorian has only been inching westward this morning.
The hurricane is expected to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next 24 hours, which will cause a prolonged period of
devastating winds and storm surge over Grand Bahama Island. By late
Tuesday, the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced and
Dorian should turn northwestward near the east coast of the Florida.
By day 3, the hurricane is expected to make a northeastward turn
ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough.  The overall track envelope
has not changed much, and little adjustment to the previous NHC
forecast was required.

It cannot be stressed enough that only a small deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of the extremely
dangerous hurricane onshore of the Florida east coast within the
hurricane warning area.  In addition, Dorian's wind field is
predicted to expand, which would bring hurricane-force winds closer
to the east coast of Florida even if the track does change.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will
continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight.
Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the
eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and Georgia
coast, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water
levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong
winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coasts of South Carolina and
North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given
by local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States into Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 26.8N  78.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 26.9N  78.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 27.2N  79.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 28.1N  79.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 29.3N  80.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 32.0N  79.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 35.4N  75.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 40.7N  66.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$
Forecaster Brown

900ct090219

Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion - 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 020852
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Satellite imagery continues to show that Dorian has an extremely
well-defined eye embedded within very cold cloud tops.  The
diameter of the eye appears to have expanded to near 20 n mi, and
radar data, especially from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology
radar, show that there are concentric eyewalls. The hurricane also
continues to exhibit strong upper-tropospheric outflow.  The initial
intensity estimate has been reduced to 145 kt, which lies between
earlier Hurricane Hunter estimates and satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB.  This lowering of intensity is consistent with
the development of a concentric eyewall. During the next few days,
Dorian should be encountering some increase in shear, which will
likely result in weakening.  However it is anticipated that the
system will remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next several
days.  The official intensity forecast lies between the
statistical-dynamical guidance and the corrected multi-model
consensus.

Steering currents have weakened, and Dorian has almost come to a
standstill over eastern Grand Bahama Island, with an initial motion
of 270/1 kt.  The mid-tropospheric high to the north of the
hurricane that had been steering Dorian westward has collapsed.
Global models indicate that, in a couple of days, a weakness in the
ridge will develop along 75W-80W.  This would likely cause Dorian to
move northwestward to northward toward and through this weakness.
Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to accelerate
northeastward on the southern side of a broad mid-tropospheric
trough. The official track forecast is very close to the previous
one and to the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA.  Although
the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the
Florida east coast, it is still possible for the hurricane to
deviate from this forecast, and move very near or over the coast.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track.


Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will
continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight.
Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the
eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surges and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through
mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only
a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring
the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast.  Residents
should listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous
storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina later this week.  Residents in these areas should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by
local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States into Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 26.6N  78.2W  145 KT 165 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 26.7N  78.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 26.9N  79.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 27.6N  79.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 28.7N  80.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 31.3N  79.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 34.5N  76.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 38.5N  70.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$
Forecaster Pasch

kamx_20190902_0059_BR-public

Hurricane Dorian - 9/1/19 900 PM Update - EYE NEARING EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019 
900 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 

CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO BATTER THE ABACOS...
...EYE NEARING EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA...

This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents in the Abacos
should continue to stay in their shelter as the northern eyewall of
Dorian remains over the area. Residents in eastern Grand Bahama are
experiencing the western eyewall. Do not leave your shelter as the
eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other side
of the eye.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto
20192441900_GOES16-ABI-FL-08-AL052019-500x500

Hurricane Dorian Update - 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Hurricane Dorian Update - 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
300 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MOVING ACROSS GREAT ABACO...

This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents in the Abacos
should stay in their shelter.  Do not venture into the eye if it
passes over your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.2W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.87 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake
20192441720_GOES16

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update - 1245 pm EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1245 pm EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON ELBOW CAY IN THE
ABACOS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite data indicate that Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm
EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased
to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to
911 mb (26.90 inches).

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take
immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over
your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 1245 PM EDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake
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