Categorical Graphic 20200121 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic 20200121 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic 20200121 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic 20200121 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic Probability of hail 1″ or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2″ or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 211915

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

   Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible near coastal Washington and
   Oregon today.

   ...Discussion...
   No change is needed to the previous convective outlook.

   ..Smith.. 01/21/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020/

   ...Synopsis...
   Forcing for ascent aloft associated with a negative-tilt trough
   approaching the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia is currently
   fostering a few low-topped thunderstorms along area coastal waters
   this morning.  A very low severe risk will exist this morning and
   afternoon with this activity - though probably too isolated and
   limited in scale to require severe probabilities.  SWO MCD 0064
   addresses this threat in the short term.  Later this evening, ascent
   will shift eastward in tandem with inland progression of the trough
   axis, further limiting the risk of lightning flashes during the
   latter half of the forecast period.

   Elsewhere, cool/stable low-levels across the remainder of the CONUS
   will limit thunderstorm potential through 12Z Wednesday.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z