Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 151432
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL302020
300 PM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020

Theta has run out of theta-e.  The cyclone has been without 
significant deep convection for many hours now and has been 
gradually spinning down today. It no longer meets the qualifications 
of a tropical cyclone, so this is the last advisory.  The initial 
wind speed is set to 25 kt per the latest scatterometer pass.  

The low is meandering this morning.  It is expected to be picked up 
to the north-northeast by the next trough over the northeastern 
Atlantic, along with an increase in forward speed.  The remnants of 
Theta should gradually lose strength due to strong shear, very dry 
air and little instability before dissipating in a day or two. 

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR
and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 31.5N  18.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  16/0000Z 31.9N  18.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/1200Z 33.7N  17.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0000Z 36.5N  16.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Depression Theta Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 150837
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Theta Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL302020
900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020

Theta is barely a tropical cyclone. The only remnants of deep
convection are a small area of warming cloud tops, located around 
90 n mi to the southeast of Theta's exposed center. The cyclone has
produced little central convection all day, so it is assumed that at
least slight weakening has occurred and the intensity is set at
30 kt. This also agrees with a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T
and CI numbers from TAFB. If Theta does not redevelop substantial
inner-core convection soon, it will likely become a remnant low
later today.

The cyclone has slowed down and is moving eastward with an initial 
motion of 090/4 kt. A continued slow eastward track is expected 
today, before a ridge centered over northwestern Africa begins to 
steer the cyclone northward on Monday. Although Theta could continue 
to produce intermittent bursts of convection, no significant 
redevelopment is anticipated due to surrounding dry air and cool 
underlying SSTs. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low 
within 12 h and dissipate in 60 h. No major changes were made to the 
NHC track or intensity forecasts, both of which are based on the 
multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 31.8N  18.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 31.9N  17.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0600Z 33.1N  17.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1800Z 35.5N  16.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0600Z 39.0N  14.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 132038
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL302020
900 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020

Theta appears to be holding its own still, with a large curved band 
feature characterizing the bulk of the deep convection, and a 
smaller area of convection intermittently developing over the 
center. Like yesterday, there has been a lack of observational data 
over the system's core since last night. However, since Theta's 
organization has not appeared to change much since that time, the 
initial intensity is being kept at a somewhat uncertain 50 kt.

Theta is forecast to change little in intensity into tonight as the 
cyclone continues moving in a relatively low shear zone associated 
with a mid- to upper-level trough axis.  By tomorrow, strong 
northerly shear is forecast to begin impacting the system while 
stable air gets entrained into its circulation.  As a result, Theta 
is expected to spin down over the weekend, degenerate to a remnant 
low on Sunday, and dissipate by the middle of next week.

Theta is moving eastward at around 9 kt, steered by a mid-level 
ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern tropical 
Atlantic. A turn to the east-southeast along with a gradual slowing 
of the forward motion is expected overnight and continuing through 
the weekend as the ridge weakens, and mid- to upper level northerly 
winds impart on the cyclone. Early next week, what remains of Theta 
are expected to turn northward and then accelerate northeastward as 
a mid-latitude cyclone passes to the north of the region.  The NHC 
forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the 
various consensus aids. On the forecast track, the center of Theta 
is forecast to track very near the westernmost Canary Islands. 
However, the system is forecast to weaken to a remnant low before 
reaching those islands. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 31.9N  22.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 31.7N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 31.4N  19.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 31.3N  18.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 31.7N  17.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  16/0600Z 32.5N  17.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1800Z 34.4N  17.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/1800Z 39.2N  12.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 120849
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL302020
900 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020

Theta currently is comprised of a large swirl of low- to mid-level 
clouds with no convection near the center.  However, a band of 
convection is wrapped about three-quarters of the way around the 
center at a distance of about 200 n mi in the eastern semicircle 
and 100 n mi in the western semicircle.  Overall, the cyclone has 
somewhat of a subtropical appearance at this time.  Since there 
has been no data from the cyclone's core region since the last 
scatterometer pass, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt.  

The storm continued to jog a little to the left since the last 
advisory, but the last few satellite images suggest a more eastward 
motion has resumed.  The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 
060/10.  For the next 24 h or so, Theta is expected to continue to 
move east-northeastward as it rounds the north side of a mid-level 
ridge centered over the Cabo Verde islands.  An eastward to 
east-southeastward motion is expected from 24-72 h as the mid-level 
ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level northerly flow 
moves over the cyclone.  After that time, Theta or its remnants is 
expected to be steered northeastward in the low-level flow to the 
southeast of a deep-layer mid-latitude cyclone over the 
northeastern Atlantic.  The new forecast track is adjusted north of 
the previous track based on the initial position and motion, and it 
lies near the various consensus models.

Theta is forecast to change little in intensity during the next 36 
h or so as it moves into the light shear area near an upper-level 
trough axis.  After that time, the trough moves south of the 
cyclone, and strong northerly vertical shear should occur along 
with the entrainment of stable air.  This combination should cause 
Theta to quickly weaken, and the intensity forecast calls for the 
system to decay to a remnant low pressure area by 96 h.  The new 
intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the old 
forecast, and it lies a little above the intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 31.7N  30.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 32.0N  28.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 32.3N  26.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 32.3N  24.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 32.0N  22.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  14/1800Z 31.7N  20.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 31.6N  20.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 33.0N  19.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/0600Z 37.0N  18.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 102037
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL302020
900 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020

A central dense overcast has persisted near the center of Theta 
since yesterday, and although the clouds tops have warmed over the 
past several hours there remains a distinct curved band feature 
over the northern portion of the circulation. Water vapor imagery 
shows the mid- upper-level trough that was over the Azores is 
beginning to leave the cyclone behind. Based on these factors, and 
the earlier indications of a compact radius of maximum winds, it 
appears that Theta has completed a transition to a tropical 
cyclone. Even though the clouds tops have recently warmed, the 
overall structure of Theta has not degraded by much since the 
previous advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is being held 
at 60 kt. 

The storm is moving 075/12 kt around the north side of a mid-level 
ridge. This feature should continue to steer Theta in a generally 
east-northeastward motion for the next few days. Late in the 
forecast period, the ridge will begin to weaken as another trough 
approaches from the northwest. This should cause the cyclone to slow 
its forward motion and begin to turn to the northeast. The latest 
model guidance has once again slowed down and the new NHC track 
forecast now lies between the previous one and the various consensus 
models.

Although Theta will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and 
within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to 
remain unstable for the next day or so, which should be supportive 
of deep convection. Therefore, little change is strength is 
indicated during that time. Some weakening is anticipated later in 
the forecast period as the airmass becomes more stable. By the end 
of the 5-day forecast period, the combination of the cooler waters 
and an approaching trough should result in extratropical transition. 
The NHC intensity forecast has changed little from the previous one 
and remains near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 29.4N  36.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 29.8N  34.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 30.3N  32.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 30.8N  30.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 31.5N  28.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  13/0600Z 32.1N  25.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 32.6N  23.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 33.2N  20.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  15/1800Z 34.4N  19.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 060231
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL252020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Gamma was entirely devoid of convection for most of the day. Shortly
before sunset, a few disorganized thunderstorms developed to the
southeast of the cyclone's center, however these appear to be forced
at least in part by a sea breeze boundary and are not exclusively
associated with Gamma. A few other small cells of convection have
developed to the west of Gamma's center during the past hour or so,
but not nearly enough to be considered sufficiently organized to
meet the requirement for a tropical cyclone. Gamma is therefore now
considered to be post-tropical and this will be the last NHC
advisory.

The cyclone could still produce some additional disorganized 
convection and periods of heavy rain overnight as it moves inland 
over the Yucatan peninsula, but this is not expected to result in 
significant regeneration. Some of this rain could impact areas that 
are preparing for the much more significant approach of Hurricane 
Delta in a day or so. The cyclone is moving southwestward near 
5 kt, and this should continue for another day or so until it 
dissipates. The winds associated with Gamma's remnants should 
gradually weaken through that time, though the system could still 
produce a few areas of heavy rain over southeastern Mexico.

It is worth noting that several model trackers, and consequently
the consensus aids, depict that Gamma will move northward over the
Gulf of Mexico and strengthen significantly in a couple of days.
This is because the trackers lose track of Gamma when it dissipates
and start following nearby Hurricane Delta instead. In reality, no 
models forecast that Gamma will remain a well-defined cyclone for 
more than another day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 21.6N  88.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  06/1200Z 21.1N  88.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  07/0000Z 20.2N  89.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 051455
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL252020
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Gamma found 
maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 37 kt and surface SFMR peak 
winds of 40 kt, and the central pressure has increased to 1003 mb.  
Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this 
advisory. 

Stiff, persistent southerly shear, and an inhibiting thermodynamic
surrounding environment should prevent Gamma from restrengthening, 
although, the Decay SHIPS intensity model does indicate a very 
brief period of decreasing shear magnitude just prior to landfall 
around the 24 hour period.  Afterward, the shear, once again, 
increases.  Gamma is expected to make landfall over the 
northwestern Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday and further weakening 
to a remnant low is forecast Wednesday as the cyclone remains 
inland over the northern Mexican State of Yucatan.  Dissipation is 
likely to occur Friday over the region, if not sooner.

The initial motion is estimated to be a south-southwestward drift, 
or 205/2 kt. A turn southwestward or west-southwestward is 
expected by tonight and this general motion should continue through 
Wednesday morning while moving inland over the northern Mexican 
State of Yucatan.  The large-scale models still insist on some 
binary interaction occurring with Tropical Storm Delta commencing 
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.  This should cause Gamma to 
gradually turn cyclonically through Thursday while remaining over 
the Northern Yucatan peninsula.  If there is a delay in Gamma's 
landfall, or the cyclone does remain just offshore, similar to the 
outlier UKMET, then Tropical Storm Delta could end up absorbing the 
smaller Gamma tropical cyclone toward the end of the week.  For 
now, the NHC forecast will side with a landfall scenario which 
agrees with the HCCA consensus and the GFS/ECMWF solutions.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall through midweek over 
portions of southeast Mexico, including the Mexican states of 
Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall could result in 
significant flash flooding. 

2. Even though Gamma is just offshore, tropical storm conditions
are likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 22.3N  87.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 22.1N  88.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 21.6N  89.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 20.9N  89.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  07/1200Z 20.2N  90.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  08/0000Z 20.3N  89.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  08/1200Z 21.0N  89.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 040232
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL252020
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Tropical Storm Gamma remains over the northern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the cyclone has been inland for about 10
hours now.  Although the storm has weakened some, satellite images
show that Gamma still has an intact central dense overcast feature
and spiral bands on the north side of the circulation.  The initial
intensity is estimated to be 50 kt, but there is quite of bit of
uncertainty in this value.  The tropical storm is drenching the
northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, and heavy rainfall is
likely to continue there into Sunday.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at 6 kt on the
southwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge.  Gamma is
expected to move very slowly to the northwest or north-northwest
toward a weakness in the ridge during the next 12 to 24 hours, and
that should take the core of the tropical storm over the extreme
southern Gulf of Mexico by early Sunday.  By Sunday night and
Monday, a combination of a building low- to mid-level ridge over the
Gulf of Mexico and a developing low pressure area over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea should cause Gamma to turn fairly sharply
to the west or southwest early next week.  A slow southwest or west
motion is likely to continue into the middle of next week, and some
of the models suggest that Gamma could become nearly stationary by
the end of the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast is largely
an update of the previous one and lies near the TVCA and HCCA
consensus models.

The intensity forecast seems tricky.  The tropical storm still
appears well organized despite its time over land and since it will
be moving back over water soon, it could re-strengthen.  However,
none of the intensity models show much strengthening, in fact, most
of them show Gamma gradually weakening throughout the forecast
period.  On one hand, the storm is going to be over the warm Gulf
of Mexico waters for several days, which favors strengthening. On
the other hand, there is a fair amount of dry air over the western
Gulf of Mexico and this could entrain into the circulation. Another
complicated factor is how Gamma interacts with a developing low over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and a disturbance to its south.
Based on these complexities, the NHC intensity forecast shows no
change in strength through the forecast period, and lies near the
high end of the guidance near the SHIPS model.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over
portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central
America, and far western Cuba.  This rainfall could result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the
mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America.

2. Even though Gamma is inland, tropical storm conditions will
continue across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight
and Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 21.3N  88.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 21.8N  88.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 22.2N  88.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 22.1N  88.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 21.8N  89.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 21.3N  90.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 20.7N  91.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 20.0N  92.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 19.9N  93.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 021456
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL252020
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Visible satellite images show that cloudiness and showers associated 
with the low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea have 
become significantly better organized since yesterday, with 
convective banding features becoming prominent. Moreover, low cloud 
motions suggest that a closed circulation has become better defined. 
 Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression 
Twenty-Five at this time.  The initial intensity estimate is 30 kt 
based on Dvorak T-numbers, but an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today to 
provide a better intensity estimate.  Sea surface temperatures are 
very warm, near 30 deg C, and vertical shear should remain low for 
at least the next couple of days, so the cyclone is likely to become 
a tropical storm by the time it nears the Yucatan Peninsula 
tomorrow.  The main impediment to strengthening over the next few 
days should be the interaction with land.  Given the uncertainties 
about how far offshore the center will be over the next several 
days, the official intensity forecast is conservative.

Since there is still a lot of scatter in the center fixes, the 
initial motion estimate, 315/8 kt, is rather uncertain.  For the 
next couple of days, the system is expected to move northwestward to 
north-northwestward on the southwestern edge of a mid-level high 
pressure area.  This would take the center near or over the 
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.  After about 48 hours, the steering 
currents are not well-defined and there is considerable spread in 
the track models.  At this time, it appears the cyclone should move 
slowly westward over the latter part of the forecast period in 
response to weak ridging over the north-central Gulf of Mexico.  The 
official forecast is near or a little north of the corrected and 
simple model consensus predictions.

Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches have been issued for a portion
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could
result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in
the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on
Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 18.1N  84.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 18.9N  85.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 19.8N  86.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 20.6N  87.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1200Z 21.4N  87.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/0000Z 22.0N  87.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 22.0N  88.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 21.5N  90.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 21.5N  92.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 240243
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

Teddy is accelerating over the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence and
will move over the Strait of Belle Isle later, while continuing
to fill/decay as an extratropical cyclone.  The initial intensity
is set at 45 kt, and this is based on the various surface wind and
pressure observations along the west coast of Newfoundland from
Channel-Port aux Basques northward to Port Saunders and the Straits. 
Teddy is forecast to maintain its current intensity and motion, 
with some further increase in forward speed, and merge with a 
larger, stronger high-latitude extratropical low near the Labrador 
Sea on Thursday.

Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells
creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days.

This will be the last NHC advisory on Teddy.  For additional
information, including warnings, consult products issued by 
Environment Canada at:  weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

For marine interests, additional information can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 51.0N  57.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  24/1200Z 54.7N  54.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  25/0000Z...MERGED WITH A LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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